Saturday, October 18, 2008

NFL - Weak 7 (Yes, Weak - not Week)

Last week Miami covered but lost, and New Orleans covered (handily) and won. The Cowboys pooped the bed, the Bears somehow lost to Atlanta (?!), I don't even want to talk about the Brown / Giants game, but I have to for just a moment.

If you go back to a previous post, you'll see that I wrote that "... the Browns will probably win by 30, just because I'm picking the Giants to cover" - they then proceeded win by 21 points. In week 4, I also said that my pick of the Broncos "almost guarantees that (the Chiefs) covers the spread".

Maybe I'm on to something here. Maybe I need to pick opposite what my head tells me, and we'll see what happens then, like the episode of "Seinfeld" in which George does everything the exact opposite of the way he usually does. Maybe next week.

Last week I was 2-3 for the fourth consecutive week, and my overall record is 14-16. Last week I "lost" $60 but "won" 40, so I start with an imaginary $80. To push it up to my minimum weekly wager of $100, I add another imaginary $20, which brings my "invested" money for the season to $135 with no winnings to show. YET, DAMMIT! I WILL WIN!

Let's see how badly I can mess this week up. Again, odds via the first column of Yahoo's odds page, at 6:00 on Saturday evening.

1. Tennessee (-9) vs. Kansas City (at KC) for $30:
The Titans are still undefeated, while KC has suspended Larry Johnson for a game. Plus, Tony Gonzales was allegedly going to be traded but wasn't, so there are all sorts of distractions for the Chefs. Great googily moogily. So ... Titans? Right?

2. Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-10.5) (at Tampa Bay) for $20:
Seattle's so much worse than I expected, and Tampa's better. So ... Bucs at home? Right?

3. NY Giants (-10.5) vs. San Francisco (at NEW JERSEY) for $20:
The Giants are at home and looking forward to make up for last week's loss to the Browns. The Niners give up a LOT of points. So ... Giants? Right?

4. Detroit vs. Houston (-9.5) at Houston for $15:
Houston (barely) won last week, and should have won the week before. The important part about those two games, and the game before it (a loss to Jacksonville) is that they've averaged just north of 27 ppg during that span. Detroit, with the exception of last week, gives up an ass-load of points. They also are playing with a second-string QB and just traded one of their best players (Roy Williams) to Dallas. I don't think they can keep up. Plus, Houston's at home. So ... Houston? Right?

5. New York Jets (-3) vs. Oakland (at Oakland) for $15:
No reason, other than I can't envision the Raiders beating a Favre-led team.

Next week I'm away on vacation, so I may not be able to post week 8 picks. Consider it my bye week if I'm not able to make it on-line for picks.



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