HEAVY METAL - update #1: so far, this sucks.

Eating is going to be an issue.

As you can see from the photos below, I have large upper front teeth (what grade school bullies might call "beaver" teeth). Additionally, in the front middle of the bottom row of teeth, one tooth is "short", especially compared to its elongated neighbor (to its left in real life, to its right in the photos).

I also have / had an overbite, which is no longer a problem, since the brackets are too big for me to put my top jaw over the lower. If I try, the bottom of my upper teeth collide with the brackets on the bottom. The only contact between teeth with the braces installed is between the upper left front tooth and the lower left front tooth.

The middle picture shows what my mouth now looks like when "closed". See the problem?

My molars don't touch.

I can't chew food. I can't grind it into small pieces to swallow.

Unless I take forever to do it all with the two teeth that touch.

Or maybe I just eat nothing but pudding, apple sauce, and ice cream for the next year and a half.

When I left the orthodontist's office, I was just trying to adjust to the way the braces felt in my mouth. I'd eaten some food prior to the appointment, so I wasn't hungry, so the issue of eating never crossed my mind when I was in the office. It apparently never crossed the orthodontist's either, because he didn't say anything when he double checked his work.

So I don't know what I'm going to have to do at this point. I'm going to try to give this a shot for the next couple of days, and I'll call (or just show up in the office) if it's a continuing problem to see if they have any advice. I asked Nicole about her teeth, and did she have any similar problems - nope. Her molars touch, so she can eat like a normal person.

On the plus side, maybe I'll finally drop those extra pounds. I didn't think starvation was an option before, but maybe it will be after all ...

HEAVY METAL!

"12 to 18 months", huh?

Baseball '08 and Chinese Democracy

My fingers could not possibly keep up with how fast my mind wants to push the words out of them, so let's see what I can write without getting a case of the forgetsies or typos. I plan to write more later, too, but I have that "looking at a monitor too long and now there's a pain behind my right eye" thing going on, so I probably should keep this on the shorter side. Also, as of 11:40 a.m., I officially see snow falling outside my window. It's not sticking to the ground, but it's definitely not just rain.

Crap.

The end of the 2008 baseball season:

You can't win them all, though I think it's a lot easier to lose when you've known what winning feels like. Yes, I'm greedy - I would have loved for the Sox to have won the World Series again this year. Perhaps I'm feeling entitled these days. But after 86 years of futility, they won two World Series in four years. My grandfather never saw them win a World Series. My father never saw them win a World Series. I've now seen two in short order, with a team built to contend for years to come. As a fan, I'm disappointed that the team fell short this year, but overall I'm still quite content - especially given that I'm surrounded by Yankees and Mets fans who didn't even have a team to rally around this October.

And if there's a way to be happy in losing, this was the way to do it. The team was dead in the water, seven outs from the end of the series, and the miracle comeback occurred. Josh Beckett returned to form enough to force a game seven. And in that game seven, there were no weird plays, fluky bounces, controversial calls, or anything else to leave a bad taste in my mouth. Jon Lester was very good, Matt Garza was even better. No complaints - the Rays won, fair and square.

What could have ended bitterly in five games turned into a very competitive and undeniably entertaining series. And that's what it is for anyone not actually involved in the game itself, right? If you're not a participant on the field or in the business side of things - if you're a fan on a couch with some popcorn and a few hours to spare - you watch hoping to be entertained. I know I certainly was.

Would things have been different with Mike Lowell in the lineup? No offense to Mark Kotsay, but yeah ... probably. Papi proved he was human after all, Jason Varitek should have been pinch hit for late in game seven, and Tampa's starting pitching was solid.

Where do they go from here?

As many baseball columnists have written, Coco Crisp's performance in the ALCS have increased his trade value, and the time to move him is, I think, fast approaching (perhaps for a catcher?). If Crisp is traded, the Sox outfield is set with Bay, Ellsbury, and Drew. No need for further moves there.

The starting pitching is solid, and if the Sox want to make a run at Sabathia (given that Manny and Schilling will be off the payroll), it could get even better. Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka are clearly at the top of the rotation. Tim Wakefield had a better season than his stats would indicate, but he may be past the point of being anything more than a .500 pitcher at this point. Justin Masterson's best years should be spent as a starter rather than a reliever. Michael Bowden showed great potential in his few starts this season. I have no idea where Clay Buchholz or Paul Byrd might fit in at this point. That's seven starters, not including the possibility of Sabathia and/or a guy I'd love to see come back to Boston, free agent Derek Lowe.

Aside from Okajima and Papelbon, anything goes with the bullpen. Mike Timlin is gone, if my prayers to the baseball gods are answered. Manny Del Carmen is, in my mind, tradable if the price is right. Javier Lopez and David Aardsma? Ehh. You could do worse than keeping them, but you could do better, too.

I have no idea what happens to Julio Lugo, because he's untradable unless the Sox offer to pay at least part of his contract. Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia are set in the middle of the infield. Kevin Youkilis (who needs a better nickname than "Youk" - Kevin "Youk" Youkilis? That's horrible. I propose Kevin "The Executioner" Youkilis instead.) is set at first ... or third?

There are interesting rumors swirling about Mark Teixeira, who would be a perfect (if expensive) fit with the Red Sox. If he signs, though, is Mike Lowell the odd man out? He's older, more expensive, and more injury prone at this point than Kevin Youkilis. Plus, Youk is probably the team's best pure hitter. Plus, Youkilis is just as talented defensively at third as he is at first.

After all he's meant to this team, though, I'd hate to see Lowell pushed to the side. And I realize that, aside from fans, there's very little loyalty in sports anymore - from players OR owners. Ask Manny Ramirez what it's like to give up on a team and its fans. Or ask Bronson Arroyo what it's like to show loyalty to the Sox by signing a smaller contract to stay in Boston rather than becoming a free agent, only to have Theo Epstein turn around and trade him to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. Anyone remember Wily Mo? Didn't think so.

The issue of loyalty comes around again, and it wears the number 33. Jason Varitek - what to do with an aging catcher who can barely hit and rarely comes through in the clutch anymore. My heart AND my gut both say to keep him, as long as he doesn't insist on a bigger or longer contract. If he wants another four-year, $40 million contract and threatens to walk if he doesn't get it (his agent is Scott Boras), then I think we say Thanks, Tek - It's been fun. But if he's willing to sign a two-year deal in the $10-$15 million range, with maybe an option year or two, then he's back behind the plate next season (and his number gets retired a few years later).

Ahh, well. I love the Hot Stove kind of stuff ... and there should be plenty of it in a few days after the World Series ends.

The 8:07 starting times for the World Series are just too late, by the way. Kids can't stay up to watch the whole thing and be ready for school the next day, and starting so late practically ensures that rain-out disasters such as last night's are more likely. Or at least have a couple of day games on Saturday and Sunday. Anything.

If the weather stays bad in Philadelphia today and doesn't allow for the continuation of last night's game 5, would the game be finished in St. Petersburg at the Trop? That hardly seems fair to Phillies fans, who've waited 15 years to see their team make it to the World Series.

I don't know if my feelings are as extreme as those in this article ("Baseball's crown event is beyond repair"), but I absolutely understand and appreciate the sentiment. (My favorite line in that article is regards tickets in Florida: "Scalpers there are eating thousands of dollars because the demand for tickets is so flabby." Good. Scalpers are evil, and I hope they lose all their money. Douchebags.)

How to fix baseball might be a great topic for another entry (which I will probably never write, either).

Eh.

NFL Picks:
I wasn't home from my vacation in time to check out odds and post my five picks against the spread, but before I left I made my fantasy "Pick 'Em" choices in a league with some friends. It's just a straight "who wins" league - no point spread. 10-4 this week overall, for the record.

Braces:
Tomorrow at 11 a.m., I'll be squirming in my chair as I undergo the installation process. A lifetime of gap-toothed smiles will be eliminated in the next 12-18 months, if all goes well. (At which point, I will be hit in the mouth with a stray softball, messing it all up again. Mark my words.)

"Chinese Democracy":
I've heard most of the album now, and it's ... OK, I guess? I think I'd like it a lot more if it wasn't marketed as a Guns N' Roses album, because if Slash and Duff aren't on the record, it ain't GNR, you know? Call it an Axl Rose solo record, or come up with a different band name, and I'm there. A lot of the guitar solos sound like Slash played them (the tone and style, specifically), and the drums aren't as "rocking" as Steven Adler and Matt Sorum made them in the past. It sounds like there's a machine or sampler going on sometimes. There's also a lot of keyboard and weird bleeps and bloops, like someone was playing around with a Trent Reznor playset but hadn't mastered it yet. Lyrically, Axl isn't the same pissed off guy he was 15 years ago, and the songs sound like it. His vocal style has also changed quite a bit.

A quick rundown:
"Better" - a decent song, some good guitar. Weird intro - you may start to wonder if this is actually a Guns N' Roses song while you listen to it.

"Chinese Democracy" - you can check it out on gunsnroses.com, if you're interested. I wish more of the record sounded like this track. It's one of the "heaviest" on the album, and it's closest in sound to previous GNR albums.

"IRS" - the vocal intro in the first 20 seconds or so are horrible and should have been cut from the track. The short guitar solo at 3:30 is pretty sweet (I think it's Buckethead).

"Madagascar" - this is the song they played on the MTV awards a few years (!) ago. Of the songs I've heard so far, it's probably my favorite.

"Rhiad and the Bedouins" - Most of this is sung in Axl's higher register, and it gets a little annoying after a while. Another Slash-like solo at 2:30 saves this otherwise forgettable track.

"This I Love" - Power ballad alert! The final 1:45 is a long, gradual fade out that never seems to end.

"If the World" - Why, Axl? It took 15 years to record THIS? Horrible. There's some Barry White wah-wah chicka chicka guitar in the background, and the lyrics sound like they were written by an eight grader ("Never thought the way you looked at me would mean so much to me ...")

"The Blues" - Here's the big difference between old and new GNR: the "old" GNR had kickass guitar riffs and meaty hooks leading into the songs. Here, another piano intro. There's lots of piano on this record. Another power ballad with some good guitar solos. Some violin-sounding synth flourishes in the background, though - what is this, a Celine Dion record?

"There Was a Time" - opening "angelic" vocals reminiscent, purposely or not, of the Stones' "You Can't Always Get What You Want". At 6:51, though, it's a bit too long, but again the guitars save it.

"Catcher in the Rye" - utterly forgettable. Mid-tempo, piano intro, bleepy-bloopy nonsense two minutes in ... yeesh.

"Shackler's Revenge" - the first couple of lines reminded me of Leonard Cohen's "Everybody Knows". Maybe it's just me. Disco drums at 0:37! Apparently it was called "Chicken Dinner" for a while because of the opening guitar riff. Lots of screechy synth on this one, too.

Bottom line: Metallica's "Death Magnetic" brought the band back to a sound closer to it's roots, but GNR's "Chinese Democracy" shows that the guy who would jump off the stage and assault fans in the front row has grown up and become a more mellow person, musically at least.

It's not a bad record by any means, honestly. It's a very different record, though, than many GNR fans are probably hoping to hear. Some people are going to think it's awful. I like it well enough, I suppose ... as long as I don't think of it as Guns N' Roses.

In the next two posts:

1. Politics
2. Our vacation last week at Disney and Universal Studios in Orlando

NFL - Weak 7 (Yes, Weak - not Week)

Last week Miami covered but lost, and New Orleans covered (handily) and won. The Cowboys pooped the bed, the Bears somehow lost to Atlanta (?!), I don't even want to talk about the Brown / Giants game, but I have to for just a moment.

If you go back to a previous post, you'll see that I wrote that "... the Browns will probably win by 30, just because I'm picking the Giants to cover" - they then proceeded win by 21 points. In week 4, I also said that my pick of the Broncos "almost guarantees that (the Chiefs) covers the spread".

Maybe I'm on to something here. Maybe I need to pick opposite what my head tells me, and we'll see what happens then, like the episode of "Seinfeld" in which George does everything the exact opposite of the way he usually does. Maybe next week.

Last week I was 2-3 for the fourth consecutive week, and my overall record is 14-16. Last week I "lost" $60 but "won" 40, so I start with an imaginary $80. To push it up to my minimum weekly wager of $100, I add another imaginary $20, which brings my "invested" money for the season to $135 with no winnings to show. YET, DAMMIT! I WILL WIN!

Let's see how badly I can mess this week up. Again, odds via the first column of Yahoo's odds page, at 6:00 on Saturday evening.

1. Tennessee (-9) vs. Kansas City (at KC) for $30:
The Titans are still undefeated, while KC has suspended Larry Johnson for a game. Plus, Tony Gonzales was allegedly going to be traded but wasn't, so there are all sorts of distractions for the Chefs. Great googily moogily. So ... Titans? Right?

2. Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-10.5) (at Tampa Bay) for $20:
Seattle's so much worse than I expected, and Tampa's better. So ... Bucs at home? Right?

3. NY Giants (-10.5) vs. San Francisco (at NEW JERSEY) for $20:
The Giants are at home and looking forward to make up for last week's loss to the Browns. The Niners give up a LOT of points. So ... Giants? Right?

4. Detroit vs. Houston (-9.5) at Houston for $15:
Houston (barely) won last week, and should have won the week before. The important part about those two games, and the game before it (a loss to Jacksonville) is that they've averaged just north of 27 ppg during that span. Detroit, with the exception of last week, gives up an ass-load of points. They also are playing with a second-string QB and just traded one of their best players (Roy Williams) to Dallas. I don't think they can keep up. Plus, Houston's at home. So ... Houston? Right?

5. New York Jets (-3) vs. Oakland (at Oakland) for $15:
No reason, other than I can't envision the Raiders beating a Favre-led team.

Next week I'm away on vacation, so I may not be able to post week 8 picks. Consider it my bye week if I'm not able to make it on-line for picks.

Sox/Rays - part II

When not writing here on the blog (too often these days, I realize), I keep in touch with a lot of friends over on a messageboard we all frequent. Some choice cuts from the last few hours, because I'm too lazy to write something new at the moment:

---

[This one was written on Oct. 13]

... but I'd like everyone to remember how down about the team so many people were in 2004 and 2007 after similar playoff situations.

There's no reason to panic!

---

The "Fan on Strike" thing was in the late 90s, I think? 2000 at the latest? It was pre-Theo, I'm pretty sure. It seems like a lifetime ago. It was fun. For those who didn't know me then, the Players Union threatened to go on strike again, and I preemptively decided it was time for fans to speak up first. One day I made a sign that said "Fan on Strike" and marched around Fenway Park a few times before a game. Ahh, to be single and awkward with strange priorities ... Good times.

I got some weird looks, had some fun conversations with random strangers. But to point, I never, EVER gave up on the Red Sox or questioned my loyalty to the team. My "battle", such as it was, wasn't with the franchise in particular.

For the record, I still stand by the point I was trying to make at the time: ticket prices are too high, the players are paid too much, it's bad for the game to have the balance of power in the same cities every year (though it's easier to look past this last one these days, I'll admit - at the time, the Yankees controlled everything).

---

... we're all fans - or worse: we're Red Sox fans. We're like the infected in "28 Days Later". It's in our blood. It brings us to a point of indescribable rage. It makes us eat our own. But there's nothing like it, and I wouldn't trade it for the world. I think we all know that if we could, we'd all get season tickets together and watch almost every inning of every game as a group, because: 1. It's part of who we are, and 2. We don't know any better ;)

---

Personally, I've found my "sports zen". My father never saw the Patriots win a Superbowl. I've seen three. My father never saw the Sox win a World Series. I've seen two. If the Patriots went 0-16, or the Sox went 60-102, I'd always have amazing memories (and commemorative DVDs) to celebrate.

---

One last thing: the first six innings were like watching King Kong Bundy destroy Hulk Hogan at the beginning of a match. The Rays had the Sox in a headlock, and it looked like all was lost.

Varitek flied out - the referee held up Hogan's arm, and it fell. Kotsay flied out, and again the arm fell.

We know how this goes, right?

Crisp singled, and the Hulkster's arm stayed up! Then Pedroia singled in the first run, and Hogan started shaking. Then Papi hit the three run blast, and the champ started waving his finger in the air to let the crowd know that there was still some life left, and that this grudge match wasn't over yet!

Drew homered, and Hogan started connecting with some big right hands! Crisp singled in the tying run - Hogan with a big boot to Bundy's chin!

When the momentum had finally swung in the ninth, JD Drew (he of "has a Posse" fame), summoning his inner-Hulkster, hit a big Leg Drop of Doom for the win!

Can you imagine how loud Fenway *WOULD* have been if all those undeserving "fans" had stayed?

---

I Love That Dirty Water!

Proof that I NEVER gave up on the Red Sox can be found HERE, specifically with my post at 6:50 p.m. (which was actually 9:50 p.m., but the messageboard is on West Coast time for some reason).

I wrote specifically, and I quote:

First of all, I'm going to be obscenely optimistic. At the time I'm writing this, the game isn't over yet. Let's all remember the "Mother's Day Miracle" game and hope lightning can strike twice.

So there you go.

Another reason to vote for Barack Obama

NFL Week 6

Well, I forgot to write something, and the Sox/Rays game is still on, so here's a quick entry with some picks. Last week I went 2-3 again, but should have gone 1-4 (thanks for blowing it, Texans!). So I started with $105, lost $60 with my three incorrect picks, and got $80 back thanks to the Bears and Colts, which means I have to use another imaginary $15 to make it an even $100 in betting for the week.

Therefore, going into the start of week six, I've "invested" $115 and don't have any winnings yet. Once again, this is why I don't actually bet real money.

Yahoo! sports has thrown a wrench in my system, too, and it's odds page (as of 10:30 p.m. on Saturday night) now lists five different sources. Given that I don't know one from another, I'll go with the first column, from SportsBetting.com. Because why not.

1. Houston (-3) vs. Miami (at Houston) for $20:
Miami beat New England, then beat San Diego. Doesn't make sense. Houston lost a heartbreaker to what one would think is a much better team than the Dolphins (Indy) last week. I think Miami can win outright.

2. Dallas (-4.5) vs. Arizona (at Arizona) for $20:
I know Arizona destroyed the Bills last week, but my gut says the Cowboys take this by at least 5.

3. New York Giants (-7.5) vs. Cleveland (at Cleveland) for $20:
I didn't think the Browns would be this bad, and I didn't think the Giants would be this good. What I think doesn't seem to matter with my picks, though, so the Browns will probably win by 30, just because I'm picking the Giants to cover.

4. Chicago (-2.5) vs. Atlanta (at Atlanta) for $20:
The Bears are the only team treating me well so far this season, so I'll stick with them.

5. Oakland vs. New Orleans (-7) (at New Orleans) for $20:
Because I have to pick more home teams.

Dammit all, I should have written more stuff ... in the ten minutes it took me to get this entry ready, Josh Beckett imploded and the Sox are down. Again.

Fun for the whole family.

There's still a lot of baseball left tonight, though ...

Site update stuff

I didn't realize how many of my links were dead-ends and how many of my pages were poorly formatted after the fact, specifically regarding some of the live bootlegs I've posted. I've fixed them (mostly, I think?) and encourage you to re-live my late 20s with me by checking out the Buffalo Tom and Dismemberment Plan shows I've posted so far, with more to come.

I also have 10 Orbit shows up, and you have no idea how much time and effort I've put into the Sheila Divine archive ... There are three new Aaron Perrino solo shows posted, with more full-band stuff coming soon too.

Other than that, nothing interesting to report, other than I'm tired from watching last night's loss to the Angels, and I'm nursing a big ol' bowl of plain oatmeal (having not paid attention, and thinking I was making blueberry). Watching the economy tank is making me feel really optimistic about finding a job I like, too ... sheesh.

Anyway, the bootlegs are free, so if we're all broke, don't despair. There may not be such thing as a "free lunch", but I'm not asking for anything in return for the music (except that you don't sell copies).

Power to the people!

Fixing broken things, part IV (the trilogy continues) / NFL Week 5

Yesterday morning I woke up, took a shower, brushed my teeth, and had to skip breakfast because I had an appointment with an oral surgeon to have my wisdom teeth removed. I had to skip food because of the planned anesthesia - I wasn't allowed to eat or drink anything for six hours prior to the scheduled 8:45 a.m. procedure, so I had a grumbly stomach by the time I sat back in the doctor's chair.

The nurse came in first, went over the list of do's and don'ts for the next 24-hours and what to expect for the next couple of days. The doctor came in, had me sign the agreement regarding the anesthesia, and put the mask on me through which the laughing gas would be applied. I didn't smell anything, didn't feel faint, and didn't, in fact, think he actually had anything flowing through the machine. He prepped my arm, put in a needle, and ...

Well, then I woke up with Nicole in the room, my mouth stuffed with gauze.

I have no idea what happened at all. Not in the slightest. I sat down then I woke up, and that was it. I've never blacked out due to drinking, never been abducted by visitors from Mars ... but this. Whoa. Neat. I was O-U-T. What a wonderful deep, deep sleep I must have been in.

I was brought to a recovery room to relax for another few minutes, and I pointed at my wrist to ask Nicole what time it was. It was barely past ten. In less than an hour, they'd knocked my ass out, taken out four wisdom teeth, stitched me back up, and revived me, all with minimal pain.

They gave me a prescription of 20 Oxycodone pills to be taken over the next few days, but I doubt I'll need them past today. I feel slight discomfort, but no pain. The feeling you get when you eat the triangle center of a piece of hot pizza and it burns the roof of your mouth is worse than the discomfort I feel right now. Nicole said she was amazed yesterday afternoon when I was pretty much acting like nothing at all had happened.

Just after the appointment, the walk to the car was a bit of a slow, zig-zagging adventure, since I was still a little dopey, and my communication skills were hampered by the gauze and my numb lips, but other than that, all was well. When I looked in the car's passenger-side mirror, my face was rather puffy and swollen (pics to come), and I had to wipe blood off my front teeth with my finger. I looked like a vampire who'd just fed. Taking the bloody gauze out of my mouth to replace it wasn't fun, either, but at least I didn't have to wear a giant plastic cone around my head like Rocky did a couple of weeks ago. So I had that going for me, which was good. When I move my tongue around my back teeth, I can feel the stitches, which is also a strange and somewhat unsettling experience.

The most unpleasant part of the whole thing, though (other than my insurance only covering 75% of the procedure), is that it quite literally has left a bad taste in my mouth. After removal of wisdom teeth, you're not allowed to brush your teeth for 24 hours, so my breath must be pretty bad by now. On the other hand, all I had to eat yesterday was a lot of ice cream and some soft egg salad, so it's not like I was chowing down on garlic and onions or other pungent foods. More than that, however, is the unshakable aftertaste of blood in my mouth. It's inescapable.

Two quick plugs:

1. I ate a LOT of ice cream, for the record. Edy's Slow Churned - go get some. A scoop full of vanilla with some iced coffee poured over it is great stuff, I promise. And their limited edition Pumpkin flavored ice cream is terrific.

2. If anyone somehow comes across this entry while doing a Google search for information about Dr. Kenneth Press, an Oral Surgeon practicing in Morristown, New Jersey - he's fantastic, and I highly recommend him. He was recommended to me by my dentist, and the lady I spoke to at the orthodonist's office gave him a glowing review when I name dropped him in a conversation regarding the reason for the delay in getting my braces put on. He's a really nice guy, and he did a terrific job of getting me fixed up and back on my feet in no time flat. His office is covered in "Best of New Jersey" magazines in which he was featured, and he's clearly on top of his game.

---

I'd probably been awake anyway "recovering", but last night's Red Sox / Angels game was a terrific reason to get a late start on this morning. As much as I hated to see a true Dirt Dog like Trot Nixon be unceremoniously let go two seasons ago for the much dreaded J.D. Drew era (how could they pay him THAT much?), I have to admit I was wrong.

J.D. Drew: I apologize. While I still feel you're overpaid, I feel that ALL ballplayers are pretty much overpaid. So don't take that personally. I was wrong, though, about what I thought you would contribute to my Red Sox, and I'm glad you're on our side. Hell, I'm even glad you stole Trot's #7 for your jersey. You are a worthy heir to the number and the field position. I wish you could stay healthy all year long, of course, but whatever voodoo you're practicing on your herniated disc seems to be working, so go do some more chanting, or sacrifice a chicken, or whatever it is you need to do to get through the next couple of weeks.

And Kevin Youkilis. Oh, man. If you've read the excellent Moneyball, which focuses on how small-market teams like the A's function and compete with teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, who have the resources to outspend their opponents on big-name free-agents, you know that Youkilis was a highly prized prospect within the Red Sox farm system a few years ago, and that many teams wanted to trade for him. Theo Epstein's continued patience in not moving guys like this is the reason the Sox are trying to win their third World Series in five seasons. He made two spectacular late-inning defensive plays at third base last night, filling in for Mike Lowell, and every at bat looks like he's faced with the prospect of having a kidnapped relative killed if he doesn't get a hit. In his first at-bat last night, he was an absolute mess, dripping with sweat as if a faucet was attached to his batting helmet. It was the first inning. The temperatures were said to be in the 60s.

Talk about a gamer.

I already have plenty of Red Sox shirts at this point, but I think I'd have a real dilemma on my hands if I wanted to get another one. Youkilis? Jon Lester? Good thing I'm not in the market at the moment.

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Finally, week five of the NFL season. When the season began, I started with an imaginary $100, and entering week five - twenty individual game picks into the season - I have an imaginary $105. Last week's 2-3 debacle (Buffalo and San Diego both covered, though neither game looked to be going well after their respective first halves and I could have easily gone 0-5) followed another 2-3 week, so I need to turn it around. On the plus side, I haven't had to use any more imaginary "seed money"; on the negative side, I'm not setting the world on fire or impressing anyone (myself, particularly) with my NFL prognostication prowess.

Part of the reason is that I never pay attention to teams like Tampa Bay, and I end up picking games that already have pretty big point spreads.

So let's see what's on the agenda this week.

The odds are from Yahoo! sports at 11:38 a.m. on Saturday, Oct. 4.

1. Arizona -1 vs. Buffalo (at Arizona) for $20:
One of the Cardinals' best offensive weapons, Anquan Boldin, is likely out for the game, which should allow Buffalo's already tough defense to dominate even more. I know they're on home turf, and clearly I'm no NFL expert given my picks so far this year, but how a 2-2 Arizona team is favored by a point over the 4-0 Bills is a little beyond me, and I'm pretty confident that the Bills win this game.

2. Chicago -3.5 vs. Detroit (at Detroit) for $20:
The Bears are 2-2 and coming off a big win against the Eagles. Their two losses were each by only three points, against the surprisingly tough Panthers and Bucs. They beat Indianapolis handily in week one. Detroit is 0-3 and coming off a bye week, and they've lost by no less than 13 points prior to that. Da Bears ought to take this one easily.

3. Indianapolis -3 vs. Houston (at Houston) for $20:
The under-achieving 1-2 Colts are due for a breakout offensive game, and 0-3 Houston is giving up 341 yards per game. Indy is coming off a bye week and have Peyton Manning salivating to put up some numbers. Houston has ... who does Houston have, exactly? Three points seems easy to cover.

4. NY Giants -7 vs. Seattle (at New Jersey - let's face it. They're in New Jersey.) for $20
No explanation, just a gut feeling. Seattle's put up 67 points in the past two weeks, and the Giants are coming off a bye week following an overtime scare against the Bungles. I think the Seahawks can cover, in a 27-23 kind of way.

5. San Diego -6.5 vs. Miami (at Miami) for $20:
Simply because I don't think Miami can do it twice in a row.

So there you go - five games, and I'm picking the road team in EVERY ONE OF THEM. Two underdogs, and as Lincoln would call them, three overdogs.

A sure recipe for disaster!

If I have a losing record this week, next week I pick teams out of a hat. I'll make a video of the picks and everything as proof.

ALDS entry #1

Johan who?

The centerpieces of the proposed trade for Santana last offseason were either Lester or Ellsbury. As the baseball cliche goes, sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

I'd love to know what the 2008 Red Sox season in the Santana-era alternate universe looks like, but the real one we're seeing right now seems like a pretty good one.

Think about this: If the Sox had made the deal, the other components to the trade would likely have left Julio Lugo or Alex Cora at shortstop (Lowrie would be gone) and the Sox without Justin Masterson in the 'pen (which means Mike Timlin would probably be out there instead).

Would you rather have a post-season team with Lowrie (who can also play third), Masterson, and Ellsbury/Lester? Or would you rather have a team with Santana, Timlin, Cora, and Ellsbury/Lester?

(Not to mention Michael Bowden, who is not on the post-season roster but looked good in his limited play earlier this year and could be a factor in the next year or two.)

Throw in the salaries of these guys versus that of Santana ...

Man, I'm glad that trade didn't happen. Say Santana's free agency were to begin a year later than it did. The Sox would <i>never</i> entertain the thought of a trade of that magnitude after THIS season, knowing what their guys are legitimately capable of.

They would have given up far, far too much for Santana, as good as he is.

While Jon Lester may not - yet - be as feared and dominant as Santana, he seems to have the potential to be just as reliable (and, at a fraction of the cost). In a playoff series, when a pitcher's impact is tremendous but the number of games played is limited, Lester and Santana seem to be of equal game value at this point. But for the rest of the series, for everyday players, I'm glad we have guys like Ellsbury and Lowrie out there. They can make a difference more than just every third day. It's very reassuring.

Once again, nice job, Theo. Your patience is a gift.