OK, so it's that time of the season again. Since I don't know any bookies (though I'm in New Jersey and could probably find one pretty easily) - and I'm broke anyway - I'm relegated to showing you all how much money I *could* win if, in fact, I actually gambled.
Many sports bettors say that betting the NFL is for chumps, and that you're just throwing your money away. Here's my history: Two years ago, Nicole and I were in Las Vegas and I debated placing money in the sports book at one of the casinos. I had six games I felt pretty good about, but I chickened out and didn't put any money down. Five of the six games would have paid off. Last year a co-worker of mine went to Las Vegas for a work-related conference, and I gave her $50 to play a four game parlay bet at one of the casinos for me. The payoff on a 4-game play like that is, I believe, 12:1. My $50 could have gotten me $600, and I would have hit it too, if Tony Romo and the Cowboys hadn't crapped the bed against the Bills early in the season and won by only one point. Crazy game. If they'd won by 10, I'd have been in the money.
My goal is to pick 5 games every week against the spread (not the money line), so that a theoretical payout would be 1:1 per game. In week one, I'll start with $100 in imaginary money. As the season progresses, I'll allow myself a minimum of $100 worth of "wagers" per week, or - if I carry a positive balance from the previous week(s), a maximum of however much my "winnings" add up to.
I'll use the odds as presented by Yahoo! sports. This week's lines are current as of 9:30 p.m. on Friday night - September 5, 2008.
So on to the games (your feedback and picks are welcome, too):
Game 1: New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay (at New Orleans) for $20
New Orleans is a much better team than they appeared to be late last year, and given how explosive their offense is capable of being (Brees, Colson, Bush, and the newly acquired Jeremy Shockey), a four point win vs. Tampa Bay should be a pretty easy task, especially at home. I don't know how many fans will be there to see the game, but the Saints will take this one, with $20 worth of my seed money.
Game 2: NY Jets -3 vs. Miami (at Miami) for $25
Favre, in his first game as a Jet, has something to prove for his new team, and last year's Ravens-and-15 team won't be ready to stop him in week one. Easy win for the Jets.
Game 3: San Diego -9 vs. Carolina (@ San Diego) for $25
Tomlinson will probably have two touches at halftime, and the Chargers will coast from there, even with lingering injuries to Shawne Merriman and Antonio Gates. And who knows how well Phillip Rivers' knee is after off-season surgery. Still, they're going to play angry after last season's disappointing conclusion and should take Carolina with little difficulty.
Game 4: Philadelphia -7 1/2 vs. St. Louis (@ Philly) for $20
I don't think the Rams are ready to play (Steven Jackson, I'm looking at you), and their defense won't be able to stop Westbrook and McNabb. Plus they're in Philly. Pick the Eagles.
Game 5: Cincinnati -1 vs. Baltimore (@ Bawlmore) for $10
Cincy has to show that it's ready to play this year, and they're going to look to make a statement early in the season. Baltimore was terrible last year, and will be terrible this year. The only reason the line is -1 is because the Bengals can't get out of their own way. For this week, at least, they will. I make no promises about next week, though.
There you go!
Many sports bettors say that betting the NFL is for chumps, and that you're just throwing your money away. Here's my history: Two years ago, Nicole and I were in Las Vegas and I debated placing money in the sports book at one of the casinos. I had six games I felt pretty good about, but I chickened out and didn't put any money down. Five of the six games would have paid off. Last year a co-worker of mine went to Las Vegas for a work-related conference, and I gave her $50 to play a four game parlay bet at one of the casinos for me. The payoff on a 4-game play like that is, I believe, 12:1. My $50 could have gotten me $600, and I would have hit it too, if Tony Romo and the Cowboys hadn't crapped the bed against the Bills early in the season and won by only one point. Crazy game. If they'd won by 10, I'd have been in the money.
My goal is to pick 5 games every week against the spread (not the money line), so that a theoretical payout would be 1:1 per game. In week one, I'll start with $100 in imaginary money. As the season progresses, I'll allow myself a minimum of $100 worth of "wagers" per week, or - if I carry a positive balance from the previous week(s), a maximum of however much my "winnings" add up to.
I'll use the odds as presented by Yahoo! sports. This week's lines are current as of 9:30 p.m. on Friday night - September 5, 2008.
So on to the games (your feedback and picks are welcome, too):
Game 1: New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay (at New Orleans) for $20
New Orleans is a much better team than they appeared to be late last year, and given how explosive their offense is capable of being (Brees, Colson, Bush, and the newly acquired Jeremy Shockey), a four point win vs. Tampa Bay should be a pretty easy task, especially at home. I don't know how many fans will be there to see the game, but the Saints will take this one, with $20 worth of my seed money.
Game 2: NY Jets -3 vs. Miami (at Miami) for $25
Favre, in his first game as a Jet, has something to prove for his new team, and last year's Ravens-and-15 team won't be ready to stop him in week one. Easy win for the Jets.
Game 3: San Diego -9 vs. Carolina (@ San Diego) for $25
Tomlinson will probably have two touches at halftime, and the Chargers will coast from there, even with lingering injuries to Shawne Merriman and Antonio Gates. And who knows how well Phillip Rivers' knee is after off-season surgery. Still, they're going to play angry after last season's disappointing conclusion and should take Carolina with little difficulty.
Game 4: Philadelphia -7 1/2 vs. St. Louis (@ Philly) for $20
I don't think the Rams are ready to play (Steven Jackson, I'm looking at you), and their defense won't be able to stop Westbrook and McNabb. Plus they're in Philly. Pick the Eagles.
Game 5: Cincinnati -1 vs. Baltimore (@ Bawlmore) for $10
Cincy has to show that it's ready to play this year, and they're going to look to make a statement early in the season. Baltimore was terrible last year, and will be terrible this year. The only reason the line is -1 is because the Bengals can't get out of their own way. For this week, at least, they will. I make no promises about next week, though.
There you go!
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