So Tom Brady, as if somehow pre-destined to miss this season given that he didn't play in the pre-season either, is out for the year. This falls squarely into the realm of "shit happens". It's happened to great players before (except the QB the Pats are playing against this weekend), and it'll happen to great players after. Them's the breaks, as they say.
I can understand other fans getting excited that their teams now have a better chance of winning a Superbowl, because a Brady-led Patriots team will always be an "elite" team, but what I can't understand - what I despise, actually - is the pure glee that so many other fans seem to be taking in Brady's injury.
I know that people are sick of the Patriots, sick of Spygate, sick of Belichik, sick of hearing about whether or not this is the greatest team ever to play on the field, sick of Randy Moss, sick of Gisele Bundchen, sick of whatever else ... but to revel in the very literal pain of a guy who's never done anything to fans except maybe break their hearts? Sad, dude. Sad. I don't like the Yankees, but I never hoped Jorge Posada would break his leg.
Anyway, what happens from here is anyone's guess. I still think the Patriots are capable of winning 10 games and the division, but the playoffs seem like they'll be a "it was just nice to be here" kind of situation. Of course, people thought the same thing when Drew Bledsoe went down in the 2000-2001 season.
Bottom line, as a Patriots fan, I'm super bummed out but not completely destroyed, the way Boston.com would like the rest of the country to believe we're supposed to be. As a sports fan, I'm disappointed, because I want to see teams play their hardest with their best players, because that's what makes Championships "valid", sometimes - I mean, if the Red Sox didn't have to play the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS but won the World Series anyway, Yankees fans would somehow feel the series was "tainted". So would some Red Sox fans, frankly. So I want to see healthy teams play healthy teams, and may the winner be worthy. As a fantasy bettor, with no real cash on the line, it makes it that much easier to stay away from Patriots games in my picks, because betting with your heart instead of your head will kill you almost every time.
Last week I went 3-2, with the Chargers and Bengals letting me down. Somehow I'm not surprised that Cincy let me down, but I'm stunned that the Chargers lost. The fact that they did, and the fact that Chicago beat Indianapolis in Indianapolis (spoiling the Colts' debut at their new home stadium) actually gives me hope for the Patriots. This could be another one of those "anything goes" seasons for some mystery team that nobody expects to do anything, so the Colts or Chargers could win, or the 49ers, or the Lions, or maybe even the Patriots.
But 3-2 isn't a great start. On the plus side, the way I distributed my fantasy bet money only lost me $35 of my $100, but $65 of my bets came through so I have up to $130 to work with this week (I know the betting lines are generally -105 or -110, and not even money, but for the sake of blog math, it's 1:1 as far as I'm concerned).
So let's look at the schedule (odds via Yahoo! sports at 2:10 p.m. on Friday, 9/12)
First of all, there's no way I'm touching the Cincinnati/Tennessee game this weekend. Crazy stuff with both of those teams. It could finish 3-0, it could finish 49-48. Yeesh. I'd love to know how much money this game is moving in Vegas this weekend; aside from degenerate, compulsive gamblers, I can't imagine anyone wanting any part of this mess. But that's just me.
1. Green Bay (-3) vs. Detroit (at Detroit) for $20:
This could be a fun, high-scoring game. Detroit gave up 34 points to Atlanta last week on the road. Green Bay is a better team that the Falcons, so a win by more than a field goal seems pretty safe, even in the Lions' home opener.
2. Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Cleveland (at Cleveland) for $30
The Steelers looked very strong last week, stronger than I expected frankly, and Cleveland faced a likewise powerful Dallas team. More importantly, Pittsburgh is 22-3 against the Browns in their last 25 matchups. I'd pick Pittsburgh with a ten point spread, if those were the odds. Maybe more. Steelers should win handily.
3. NY Giants (-8.5) vs. St. Louis (at St. Louis) for $25:
St. Louis might win 4 or 5 games this year, but this ain't one of 'em. I don't like their chances against the spread, either.
4. Tampa Bay (-7) vs. Atlanta (at Tampa Bay) for $15
I think seven points is too much to give in this game. If the line was -3, I wouldn't pick this game, but I think Atlanta can win this game (or at least lose by less than a touchdown).
5. Jacksonville (-6) vs. Buffalo (at Jacksonville) for $20
Jacksonville's offensive line is beat up, part of the reason they only scored 10 points against the Titans last week. Buffalo looked solid against Seattle last weekend, putting up 34 points. Put them together this weekend, and I think the Bills win outright - forget about just covering the spread.
So that's $110 of my allowed $130. I'll pocket the other $20 for next week's games, in case I want to use it then.
As an aside, however, I think it's entirely possible that San Diego and Indianapolis could both begin this season 0-2. They've got tough games this weekend, but given their respective point spreads (-1 and -1.5), I wouldn't fake-bet on either of them, just in case.
I can understand other fans getting excited that their teams now have a better chance of winning a Superbowl, because a Brady-led Patriots team will always be an "elite" team, but what I can't understand - what I despise, actually - is the pure glee that so many other fans seem to be taking in Brady's injury.
I know that people are sick of the Patriots, sick of Spygate, sick of Belichik, sick of hearing about whether or not this is the greatest team ever to play on the field, sick of Randy Moss, sick of Gisele Bundchen, sick of whatever else ... but to revel in the very literal pain of a guy who's never done anything to fans except maybe break their hearts? Sad, dude. Sad. I don't like the Yankees, but I never hoped Jorge Posada would break his leg.
Anyway, what happens from here is anyone's guess. I still think the Patriots are capable of winning 10 games and the division, but the playoffs seem like they'll be a "it was just nice to be here" kind of situation. Of course, people thought the same thing when Drew Bledsoe went down in the 2000-2001 season.
Bottom line, as a Patriots fan, I'm super bummed out but not completely destroyed, the way Boston.com would like the rest of the country to believe we're supposed to be. As a sports fan, I'm disappointed, because I want to see teams play their hardest with their best players, because that's what makes Championships "valid", sometimes - I mean, if the Red Sox didn't have to play the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS but won the World Series anyway, Yankees fans would somehow feel the series was "tainted". So would some Red Sox fans, frankly. So I want to see healthy teams play healthy teams, and may the winner be worthy. As a fantasy bettor, with no real cash on the line, it makes it that much easier to stay away from Patriots games in my picks, because betting with your heart instead of your head will kill you almost every time.
Last week I went 3-2, with the Chargers and Bengals letting me down. Somehow I'm not surprised that Cincy let me down, but I'm stunned that the Chargers lost. The fact that they did, and the fact that Chicago beat Indianapolis in Indianapolis (spoiling the Colts' debut at their new home stadium) actually gives me hope for the Patriots. This could be another one of those "anything goes" seasons for some mystery team that nobody expects to do anything, so the Colts or Chargers could win, or the 49ers, or the Lions, or maybe even the Patriots.
But 3-2 isn't a great start. On the plus side, the way I distributed my fantasy bet money only lost me $35 of my $100, but $65 of my bets came through so I have up to $130 to work with this week (I know the betting lines are generally -105 or -110, and not even money, but for the sake of blog math, it's 1:1 as far as I'm concerned).
So let's look at the schedule (odds via Yahoo! sports at 2:10 p.m. on Friday, 9/12)
First of all, there's no way I'm touching the Cincinnati/Tennessee game this weekend. Crazy stuff with both of those teams. It could finish 3-0, it could finish 49-48. Yeesh. I'd love to know how much money this game is moving in Vegas this weekend; aside from degenerate, compulsive gamblers, I can't imagine anyone wanting any part of this mess. But that's just me.
1. Green Bay (-3) vs. Detroit (at Detroit) for $20:
This could be a fun, high-scoring game. Detroit gave up 34 points to Atlanta last week on the road. Green Bay is a better team that the Falcons, so a win by more than a field goal seems pretty safe, even in the Lions' home opener.
2. Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Cleveland (at Cleveland) for $30
The Steelers looked very strong last week, stronger than I expected frankly, and Cleveland faced a likewise powerful Dallas team. More importantly, Pittsburgh is 22-3 against the Browns in their last 25 matchups. I'd pick Pittsburgh with a ten point spread, if those were the odds. Maybe more. Steelers should win handily.
3. NY Giants (-8.5) vs. St. Louis (at St. Louis) for $25:
St. Louis might win 4 or 5 games this year, but this ain't one of 'em. I don't like their chances against the spread, either.
4. Tampa Bay (-7) vs. Atlanta (at Tampa Bay) for $15
I think seven points is too much to give in this game. If the line was -3, I wouldn't pick this game, but I think Atlanta can win this game (or at least lose by less than a touchdown).
5. Jacksonville (-6) vs. Buffalo (at Jacksonville) for $20
Jacksonville's offensive line is beat up, part of the reason they only scored 10 points against the Titans last week. Buffalo looked solid against Seattle last weekend, putting up 34 points. Put them together this weekend, and I think the Bills win outright - forget about just covering the spread.
So that's $110 of my allowed $130. I'll pocket the other $20 for next week's games, in case I want to use it then.
As an aside, however, I think it's entirely possible that San Diego and Indianapolis could both begin this season 0-2. They've got tough games this weekend, but given their respective point spreads (-1 and -1.5), I wouldn't fake-bet on either of them, just in case.
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